Archive for April, 2010

FHA Loans – ‘to the Rescue’ or ‘to be Rescued’

Monday, April 26th, 2010

FHA-insured Loans, originated during the great depression by the Federal Housing Administration and are meant to secure lenders against defaulting borrowers. Whereas, they are also an answer to borrowers who have a less than perfect (below 720) credit score or are unable to handle a 10% – 20% down payment. All these traits of FHA loans quickly made them popular especially in the 2008-2009 financial climate.

In the year 2008, FHA loans have accounted for about 46 percent of all mortgage applications – almost half of all mortgages. In addition, Federal Housing Administration guaranteed 186,000 mortgages in June, 2009, a record number in its 75-year history.

In these days, individuals highly prefer them over conventional loans, since it only requires a 3%-3.5% down payment, while conventional loans entail a 10%-20%. However, interest rates on FHA loans are a little bit higher than conventional loans.

Some analysts pointed out that borrowers with FHA-secured loans now have an average credit score of 690, compared to 630 two years ago. In spite of this, a large number of borrowers are turning up late in their payments or even defaulting. Delinquent FHA loans, those 90 days or more late, jumped 62.1% in the past year to 558,944, or 9.4% of FHA loans, as of the end of January, according to agency statistics.  The FHA, however, insists its finances are sound. Its loan portfolio actually performed better than most mortgage products, according to David Stevens, the agency’s commissioner.

FHA loans are still a better option for lower income individuals to purchase a home that they would not otherwise be able to afford. However, if the number of delinquencies increases with such a pace, it is possible that taxpayers will eventually have to bail out the agency. My question here is: How can the Federal Housing Administration work out a suitable strategy to reduce defaults and late payments, and maintain healthy equity/collateral ratios against lent money at the same time?

Principal Reduction Programs – Banks say ‘NO’

Monday, April 19th, 2010

The Housing Market slump in the United States is turning out to be more critical. It has left around seven million households on the verge of foreclosures. A large number of Individuals walled by loans, credit card payments & debts etc. are turning a deaf ear towards mortgage, especially when the housing prices are unfavorable. Individuals are focusing more to improve their credit ratings by paying off credit card payments.

The US government, since its inception, has tried all means to harness it.  Buying mortgage securities, lowering interest rates, setting new standards and making policies, however, the outcomes are not so satisfying.

The idea of reducing loan principals last month was another step to save the besieged homeowners. However, Banks do not look so happy with this decision. According to them, the tool would not work as it is designed to. Principal reduction on one hand could reward households for consuming more than they could afford. While, on the other hand, the cost of reducing principal will be built into future loans, resulting in less access to credit and higher costs for consumers. It might punish future homeowners by raising the cost of borrowing. These latest foreclosure prevention measures might encounter some resistance among banks, ultimately rendering them less effective than hoped.

The justifications given by banks cannot be overlooked; somehow it is unfair to benefit the current borrowers by putting a burden on the future homeowners. What do you say – how can the government tackle this problem of principal reduction in such a way that it is beneficial to banks and to mortgage borrowers at the same time? In addition, how principal reductions in equity based home loans benefit homeowners, as these loans are widely used for domestic purposes rather than paying for housing?

Reference Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/14/business/14mortgage.html?scp=4&sq=mortgage&st=cse

Bankruptcies High Tide

Monday, April 12th, 2010

Small businesses make up a large share of the whole economy, not only in the US but in all parts of the world. However, these businesses are the most affected by the recent global recession. People who were getting good returns from their businesses are now turning towards courts with bankruptcy petitions. There were 158,141 U.S. bankruptcy petitions filed last month — a 35% increase over February’s figure, according to data compiled by Automated Access to Court Records (AACER). This was a 19% increase over the number in October 2009, the last record-high month.

A large number of individuals are turning towards the complete bankruptcy filing (chapter 7 filings), allowing courts to foreclose all their possessions along with their homes. However, chapter 13 filings are also available, which requires individuals to repay a substantial part of their debts and prevents banks from foreclosing their houses. This behavior clearly indicates that home-owners are just walking away from their mortgages, rather than attempting to cope up with their payments, especially in times where large number of individuals are unemployed and don’t foresee themselves having good earnings in the near future.

The statistics show that personal borrowings in the US have increased 10 times more than they were in 1960, allowing individuals to borrow relatively more than their returning capabilities. That is why people are ending up bankrupt.  My question here is: If people are not able to pay back, why lend them money in the first place? Why can’t financial institutions counsel their borrowers on borrowing patterns and best practices, keeping In view the conditions of the economy?

Reference Link: http://www.time.com/time/business/article/0,8599,1977728,00.html

Interest Rate Remedy – ‘with Side Effects’

Monday, April 5th, 2010

The drop in housing prices extends to the fourth month. After a five-month run-up in home prices starting last spring, prices have now fallen for four consecutive months – according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index of 20 cities, a gauge of market values. In January, prices were down 0.4%, compared with December and have fallen 0.7% from a year earlier.

The government, in order to stabilize the decaying housing market, spent more than a trillion dollars buying assets and investing in mortgages securities. Whereas, the near-zero interest rate was also expected to push the housing market upwards. However, both gave out unsatisfactory results. Moreover, recent news of the government winding up its buying activities will create an adverse effect on the industry. However, there are no updates concerning a rise in interest rates.

Lower interest rates predict good progress for the economy as a whole, especially for borrowers who always hope for ‘inexpensive’ money. On the other hand, these low rates are terrible for savers, especially for retirees who want to convert their lifetime savings into lifetime income. It takes a surprisingly large amount of money to generate even a modest amount of recurring income.

People planning their retirement era are unwilling to invest in such annuities, so what do they do then? They make pensions. It gives them a fixed benefit regardless of changing interest rates, making it more valuable than the annuities.

The other side of the picture – no doubt pensions have a fixed yield, but the changing interest rate stimulates the inflation level, which in turn influences purchasing power and an individual’s average income. Low interest rates means more investments which in turn means more production and consequent demand for production. An increase of 0.79% (January 2010 – 2.63% and November 2009 – 1.84%) in inflation is clearly evident of this fact.

The conclusion – lower interest rates favor borrowers and the housing market as a whole. On the contrary, savings based earners are not getting much out of their investments. What do you suggest, what should such individuals do at this stage?  How can the government stabilize the housing market along with increasing interest rates? Is there any other tool, apart from buying assets and mortgage securities?

Reference Links:

http://inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/Inflation-CPI.aspx?Symbol=USD\

http://money.cnn.com/2010/03/30/real_estate/January_Case_Shiller/index.htm

http://money.cnn.com/2010/03/30/markets/thebuzz/index.htm

http://money.cnn.com/2010/03/29/news/economy/interest_rates.fortune/index.htm